00 / Briefings

Field notes on geopolitics & markets.

Short, sharp analytical briefings on commodities, strategic capital, and the political currents that move them.

Markets, in motion
geopolitics, market riskUnited StatesEurope4 Aug 2026

Two Pauses, One Round Trip: Grading the Sell Discipline as the AI Bounce Bit Back

We grade last week's calls against a second oil escalation-and-pause cycle, own a wrong underweight on the AI complex, and reset the book to a softer dollar, a peaked 10-year, and an unwinding war premium.

18 min readRead →
geopolitics, market riskMiddle EastUnited States28 Jul 2026

Round Trip to $100: The Spike That Vindicated the Sell Discipline

Oil touched triple digits and gave it all back in five sessions; we grade last week's calls, mark the book to a de-escalating market, and set the trades for a fragile pause.

25 min readRead →
geopolitics, market riskMiddle EastUnited States21 Jul 2026

Punitive, Not Catastrophic: The War Premium Holds Its Range

Oil paid us again and higher-for-longer kept winning, but the dollar stalled and the AI unwind we were short finally cracked; here is the grade sheet and how we are repositioned.

21 min readRead →
Geopolitics and Macro StrategyMiddle EastUnited States14 Jul 2026

The War Came Back: The Fed Un-Blinks

Our mid-August oil hedge paid for the whole book and our extended-hold Fed call was run over inside a week; here is what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we are repositioned.

24 min readRead →
Weekly risk reportMiddle EastUS7 Jul 2026

De-escalation Wins: The Fed Blinks

Geopolitical intelligence translated into portfolio action. Every observation maps to one of five outputs: asset class, currency and capital flows, sector rotation, jurisdiction and estate, or entry and exit timing.

17 min readRead →